In which Wolf opens day 16's door... Watch this episode on YouTube here: https://youtu.be/NZrjaOaewgw
Welcome to the Beware of Wolf Advent Calendar of Bad Thinking. To celebrate the holidays, I'm counting down the days until Christmas with a common type of bad thinking each day, described in 60 seconds. This holiday season, give the gift of good thinking by sharing these videos with your friends!
Today is Day 16: "Recency Bias"
If you make a shopping list and then forget it at home, you might find yourself wandering the aisles trying to remember what you wrote down. And you're more likely to remember the last items you wrote down, right? That's Recency Bias, which is our natural tendency to remember recent events more easily than those that happened in the past.
Unfortunately, recency bias can lead to some pretty bad choices. Let's say you're trying to decide which college to attend. You might be more likely to remember the most recent college you visited, even if it wasn't the best fit for you. That's recency bias in action.
In jury trials, studies have shown that information presented at the end of the trial has a greater likelihood of influencing the outcome of the verdict, so lawyers may present their most dramatic evidence near the end to help sway the opinion of a jury toward their side of the argument.
And advertisers also use recency bias to manipulate your decision making: studies have shown that people are over twice as likely to purchase the first item in a list of similar items, regardless of features.
Like all cognitive biases, half the battle is keeping in mind that it even exists. For memory-based biases like recency, using memory aids like taking notes on your choices will help you make a more reasonable decision.
Happy Holidays!